Global Trade Wars and Rising Influence of BRICS

Global Trade Wars and the Rising Influence of BRICS: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions and the Push for De-Dollarization

The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by intensifying trade wars, strategic rivalries, and the growing influence of the BRICS alliance—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. At the heart of this transformation lies India, a nation caught in a delicate balancing act between its strategic partnerships and the looming specter of a regional conflict or even a broader World War III scenario. The interplay of trade wars, de-dollarization efforts, and the BRICS bloc’s rising power has profound implications for global stability, sustainable development, and the independence of individual nations. Below we analyse India’s precarious position, the strategic agendas of global powers, and the potential of BRICS to shape the world’s future.

India’s Strategic Tightrope: Balancing Alliances and Risks

India’s foreign policy has long been defined by strategic autonomy, seeking partnerships without subordination. Its deepening ties with the United States, particularly through defense agreements and economic cooperation, have positioned India as a key player in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, this alignment comes with risks. The U.S. has increasingly viewed India as a counterweight to China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. In the absence of clear strategic foresight and robust agreements, India risks being drawn into a Western-sponsored conflict against its BRICS partners, Russia and China, in the event of a regional war or a global escalation.A potential conflict between India and China, fueled by Western geopolitical strategies, could have catastrophic consequences. Both nations are nuclear powers with massive populations and growing economies. Estimates suggest that a full-scale war could result in the loss of over one billion lives, devastating both countries while aligning with controversial Western narratives around depopulation. Such a scenario would not only cripple India and China but also destabilize the Global South, leaving Western powers unscathed and dominant.India’s alignment with the U.S., if it evolves into subordination, could force it to confront Russia and China, undermining its long-standing ties with Moscow and complicating its already tense relationship with Beijing. Russia has been a reliable partner for India, providing advanced military hardware and energy supplies, while China, despite border disputes, is a critical economic partner. A fracture in these relationships could weaken India’s strategic autonomy and destabilize the BRICS alliance, which has emerged as a counterbalance to Western dominance.

The U.S. and the Globalist Agenda: Targeting BRICS

The United States, driven by what some analysts describe as a “deep state” and anti-Russia, anti-China lobbies, views BRICS as a threat to its global hegemony. The bloc’s growing economic and strategic clout challenges the Western-dominated financial and geopolitical order. The U.S. perceives the loss of dollar dominance as tantamount to losing a war, given the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency. BRICS’ push for de-dollarization, through alternative currencies and payment systems, directly undermines this dominance.Globalist agendas, as critics argue, aim to control key industries, particularly oil, and maintain Western economic supremacy. Russia’s vast oil reserves, which power much of Europe and Asia, are a prime target. By isolating Russia through sanctions and proxy conflicts, Western powers seek to weaken its energy sector and bring it under their influence. Similarly, China’s manufacturing prowess and India’s growing economic and demographic weight make them targets for economic containment. The U.S. and its allies have openly advocated for measures to curb BRICS’ rise, viewing the bloc as an anti-Western coalition that threatens their global influence.The strategy to dismantle BRICS includes several key objectives:

1. Neutralizing Russia’s Oil Industry: Controlling or disrupting Russian oil exports would weaken Moscow’s economy and its ability to fund military and diplomatic initiatives.
2. Isolating India from BRICS: By leveraging India’s rivalry with China and offering lucrative defense and trade deals, the U.S. seeks to pull India away from the BRICS alliance.
3. Destabilizing China: A regional conflict or economic sanctions could cripple China’s economy, slowing its rise as a global superpower.
4. Subduing Smaller States: Smaller BRICS members and aligned nations are pressured to align with Western interests through economic coercion or military threats.

BRICS’ Growing Power

BRICS represents a formidable bloc, wielding significant economic and strategic influence. Collectively, BRICS+ countries account for over 56% of the world’s populace and roughly 40% of global GDP, with projections suggesting they surpassed the G7 ( 28% GDP ) in economic output. Their influence extends beyond economics, encompassing resource wealth, manpower, and strategic alliances that challenge Western dominance.

Resource Dominance

BRICS nations control a significant share of the world’s natural resources. Russia holds some of the largest oil and gas reserves, while China dominates the production of rare earth elements, critical for technology and renewable energy sectors. India and Brazil contribute substantial mineral resources, including iron ore and bauxite. This resource wealth gives BRICS leverage to counter Western sanctions and influence global markets.

Demographic Strength and Working-Age Manpower in BRICS vs. U.S.

The BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—command significant demographic strength, driven by their vast working-age populations (ages 15–60), which fuel industrial output, military capabilities, and innovation. This contrasts sharply with the United States, which faces a declining workforce and labor scarcity. Limited impact of AI automation, and the challenges of relocating U.S. manufacturing.

BRICS’ working-age population (2.3 billion) is over 10 times the U.S.’s (214 million). India and China alone contribute 2 billion, with younger median ages (27.6–33.5 vs. 38.9 for the U.S.). BRICS’ labor force (1.55 billion) vastly outnumbers the U.S.’s (~157 million), with India’s workforce projected to drive 24.3% of global labor by 2030.

AI Automation’s Limited Near-Term Impact

AI and automation will not significantly replace human workforces in the near future (next 5–10 years). While AI could enhance U.S. productivity by 0.5–0.9% annually through 2030, it primarily automates routine tasks (e.g., data entry, call centers). Only ~15% of global work hours are automatable by 2030, with complex physical roles (e.g., manufacturing, construction) and creative tasks remaining human-driven. For example, Foxconn’s automation of 60,000 jobs in China was limited to repetitive tasks, while roles requiring dexterity or problem-solving resist automation. BRICS’ labor-intensive economies, especially India’s and China’s, will continue relying on human manpower.

U.S. Manufacturing Relocation and Manpower Scarcity

Even if the U.S. repatriates all manufacturing to its mainland, its declining workforce and labor scarcity would render factories non-operational. The U.S. labor force (157 million) is shrinking due to low fertility (1.6 children per woman) and an aging population (median age 38.9). Manufacturing requires significant manpower—e.g., the U.S. had 12.8 million manufacturing jobs in 2023, but job vacancies reached 600,000 due to labor shortages. Relocating industries like semiconductors or automotive production would demand millions more workers, far exceeding the U.S.’s annual workforce growth (~300,000). Immigration cannot fully bridge this gap, and training programs take years. In contrast, BRICS’ vast and younger workforce (e.g., India’s 557 million, China’s 781 million) ensures operational capacity, making U.S. self-sufficiency unrealistic without addressing demographic constraints.

BRICS’ demographic advantage, with ~2.3 billion working-age individuals and younger populations, positions it as a global labor powerhouse, far surpassing the U.S.’s ~214 million. AI automation’s limited scope ensures human manpower remains critical, particularly for BRICS’ labor-driven economies. The U.S.’s attempt to relocate manufacturing would falter due to insufficient workers, underscoring BRICS’ strategic edge in shaping global economic and geopolitical outcomes.

Pharmaceutical and Manufacturing Control

India is a global leader in generic pharmaceuticals, supplying affordable medicines to much of the world. China’s manufacturing dominance spans electronics, infrastructure, and consumer goods. Together, they can exert significant influence over global supply chains, countering Western attempts to isolate them economically.

De-Dollarization and Financial Independence

One of BRICS’ most ambitious initiatives is de-dollarization, aimed at reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. The bloc is exploring alternative currencies and payment systems, such as a BRICS currency or a SWIFT alternative, to bypass Western-controlled financial networks. Russia and China have already begun trading in their national currencies, while India is exploring similar arrangements. De-dollarization enhances the independence of BRICS nations, shielding them from dollar-based sanctions and embargoes.

Strategic and Security Alliances

BRICS has the potential to evolve into a strategic and security bloc, countering Western alliances like NATO. The Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle, a subset of BRICS, could form a robust strategic alliance, bolstered by land-based trade corridors like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Such initiatives would strengthen economic and military cooperation, reducing dependence on Western-controlled maritime routes.

The Future of BRICS and Global Sustainability:

BRICS’ rise offers a counter-narrative to Western hegemony, promoting a multipolar world order. By prioritizing sustainable development, the bloc can address global challenges such as climate change, poverty, and inequality. Brazil’s expertise in renewable energy, India’s advancements in solar power, and China’s investments in green technology position BRICS as a leader in sustainable development.However, the bloc faces internal challenges, including India-China tensions and differing economic priorities. Overcoming these requires diplomatic finesse and a shared vision. If successful, BRICS could reshape global governance, advocating for equitable representation in institutions like the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund.

Implications for India and the Global South

For India, the choice is stark: align with the West and risk entanglement in a devastating conflict, or strengthen ties with BRICS to preserve strategic autonomy. A western pushed war with China would not only devastate India but also undermine the Global South’s aspirations for independence and development. By championing de-dollarization and BRICS cooperation, India can safeguard its economy from Western sanctions and contribute to a balanced global order.

The interplay of trade wars, de-dollarization, and BRICS’ rising influence will define the world’s future. India stands at a crossroads, where strategic decisions will determine its role in a potential global conflict and its contribution to sustainable development. By strengthening BRICS and fostering alliances like RIC, India can help build a multipolar world that prioritizes sovereignty, equity, and resilience. The path forward requires careful navigation to avoid the pitfalls of Western agendas while harnessing the collective power of BRICS to shape a more inclusive and sustainable global future.

This is an intuitive analysis.